**As seen in Risk In The Week report 07/23/23, subscribe at cablefxm.co.uk/reports
First quarter consumer prices slowed to 7.8% Y/y from the prior 7.8%, however, the print came slightly above the consensus median of 6.9%. The quarterly pace came in at 1.4% from the prior 1.9%, the rise was led by education and health prices, clothing and furniture were the only components to record declines.
A recent survey compiled by Bloomberg shows economists expectation for a 5.6% Y/y inflation rate in 2023. The desk at NAB said that the Q2 CPI data will be pivotal to the RBA’s August Cash Rate decision and forecasts, they added that their inflation projections point to another Cash Rate hike in August. NAB said they expect price detail to show a lack of progress and a risk of a slower return of inflation to target than in the SoMP profile. They pencil Q2 trimmed mean CPI at 1.1% Q/q and 6.0% Y/y, and headline prices at 0.9% Q/q and 6.1% Y/y, the latter is lower than both the consensus and the RBA’s SoMP.
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