💹USD/JPY Rises to Best Weekly Streak In 2025: Cable FX Macro

• USD/JPY continues its long-term uptrend above the 50-week SMA, though short-term signals are mixed. On intraday charts (30-minute timeframe), it's consolidating within a bullish channel, with support between 147.50 and 147.70 and resistance around 149.00. A drop below 148.00 might aim for the 200-day SMA (approximately 148.00s), while the upside targets 150.0. The overall sentiment is neutral, showing a "Strong Buy" on indicators but a "Sell" on moving averages..

• There is a strong inverse correlation (-0.94) indicating that rate expectations are primarily influencing movements in the Fed funds futures curve. Recent US data has introduced volatility, and if the Tokyo CPI (anticipated to be 2.8% core) falls short, it could increase pressure. The overall weakness of the USD, such as against the EUR at 1.1708, is linked to trade war concerns during the Trump administration.

• Analysts predict that the USD/JPY will fluctuate between 146.81 and 151.38 until the end of the year, with an average around 148.59. There is potential for an increase if the Bank of Japan postpones rate hikes and U.S. economic growth remains strong. However, risks include the possibility of higher-than-expected U.S. inflation, which could delay rate cuts (supporting USD/JPY), or interventions to strengthen the yen if it depreciates significantly.