đź’ąUSD/JPY Holds Bullish Historical Profile Into Year-End: Cable FX Macro
Historically, USD/JPY exhibits a remarkably strong bullish seasonal bias heading into year-end, characterized by a sharp multi-month rally that accelerates from late summer through December. After reaching a seasonal trough between August and September around the 0.5% gain mark, the pair consistently builds upward momentum through October and November.
This rally culminates in December, where USD/JPY typically hits its highest seasonal average performance of the year, exceeding 3.0% cumulative gains.
This year-end dollar strength and yen weakness are largely driven by structural capital flows, including Japanese institutional investors and pension funds rebalancing into higher-yielding foreign assets, corporate balance sheet adjustments ahead of the calendar year-end, and seasonal US dollar demand.
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