🏦🇺🇸 UBS: FOMC Minutes Preview

With the June FOMC meeting seen as a major shift in Fed stance, today's FOMC minutes released at 1400 EST are worth watching.

UBS Economics expects:

Taper Timing: Only a "few" or "some" participants want to start the reduction of asset purchases sooner rather than later. Instead, they expect "most" think the substantial progress is a "ways off" with risk that "most" want to begin tapering in coming months Inflation risk: Most participants see inflation risks to the upside but high inflation is transitory and will revert back to around 2% Discussion but no decision on MBS purchases: Some participants will favor an early reduction in MBS purchases while more want to taper MBS at the same time as UST

Recent Fed Speak:

Atlanta Fed Bostic: The Fed could start slowing its asset purchases in the next few months as the economy recovers faster than expected from the pandemic. Dallas Fed Kaplan: The tapering process should start "soon," so as to avoid excess risk taking in markets and so that the Fed won't need more aggressive measures later. San Francisco Fed Daly: A start to tapering this year may be appropriate. St. Louis Fed Bullard: In favor of tapering MBS purchases soon and first, as surging price increases in the housing market fan worry it is overheating.