🇺🇸📊U.S. Labor Market Expected to Ease On September: Cable FX Macro
September payrolls are expected to be around 85K, down from August’s 162K and closer to the much weaker three- and six- month averages. Unemployment is seen steady at 4.1% (a minority looks for 4.2%), with average hourly earnings at 0.3% month-on-month and roughly 3.1–3.2% year-on-year. This is the event of the week for the dollar and front-end rates. A print well under 75k with rising unemployment reopens the wait before hiking debate, which several Fed governors have been vocal on; something near or above 150k with sticky wages hardens the case that the labor market bounced and that oil-driven inflation is landing on a still-tight economy.
Our non-farm payrolls dashboard contains a forecast summary to get you prepared for the risk event.
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