⚠️❗️U.S. GDP, SNB, Riksbank Ahead: Risk Map

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Major macroeconomic events ahead provided by the Risk Map

U.S. GDP: The US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the second quarter of 2025 showed a strong rebound, with real GDP (adjusted for inflation) increasing at an annualized rate of 3.3%. The BEA's third (final) estimate for Q2 is scheduled for September 25, 2025, alongside the 2025 annual update to national accounts, which could include minor revisions. Overall, Q2 data underscores a resilient but uneven economy, with tariff distortions complicating the outlook.

SNB: As of September 18, 2025, the SNB's policy rate stands at 0.00%, reflecting a neutral stance amid low inflation pressures (around 1.1-1.4% YoY in recent months). The SARON (Swiss Average Rate Overnight) is at -0.04%, indicating slight negative territory for short-term lending. The next policy assessment is scheduled for September 25, 2025, where rates are expected to hold steady, but forward guidance on franc volatility and global trade risks (e.g., US tariffs) will be key.

Riksbank: Back in August, the Board decided to keep the policy rate unchanged at 2.00%, effective from August 27, 2025. This decision reflects a continued cautious approach amid evolving inflation dynamics and global economic uncertainties. The detailed minutes from the August 19 discussion were released on August 26, 2025, outlining the Board's internal debate. Members agreed on the hold but highlighted divisions on the pace of future easing—some favored a quicker cut if inflation proves temporary, while others stressed vigilance against reacceleration.