📊Traders Trim Hawkish Fed Pricing On NFP: Cable FX Macro

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• Today’s softer-than-expected June jobs report triggered a meaningful dovish repricing in Fed rate expectations, particularly at the front end of the curve. The weak headline payrolls print and downward revisions to prior months significantly reduced the probability of a near-term rate hike, pushing back the odds of any tightening in July or September while increasing the market’s conviction in a more gradual or delayed easing path later in 2026. Across tenors, the largest adjustment came in the front-end contracts, with traders scaling back aggressive hike pricing and shifting some probability mass into late 2026 and early 2027 meetings. The curve exhibited a modest bull steepening as shorter-dated yields fell more than longer-dated ones, reflecting the view that today’s data eases immediate policy pressure even as the broader hawkish tilt from recent Fed communications remains intact. Overall, the market is now pricing a lower terminal rate and fewer cumulative hikes for the remainder of the year compared to pre-data levels.