🏦📊Traders Now Price In 140Bps Of Fed Easing Over The Next Year: Cable FX Macro
- Rosbel Durán
- Sep 8
- 1 min read
The next FOMC meeting is September 16-17, 2025, with decisions announced at 2:00 PM ET, followed by Powell's press conference. Markets are now pricing in an 88% probability of a 25 basis point (0.25%) rate cut at this meeting, up from 67% before Powell's August Jackson Hole speech.
Futures suggest 50-75 basis points of cuts by year-end, with a high chance of one cut in September and another in December (or October). End-2025 rate likely 3.75%-4.00%. Our Interest Rate Probability tool shows current market pricing (updated weekly), and a relative major central bank comparison. When curves turn negative vs Fed (US), it means that central banks are expected to ease less than the Fed.
Analysts at Goldman Sachs forecast 3x 25 bp cuts (September, October, December), ending at ~3.75%, citing muted tariff impacts and labor weakness. The desk at BofA recently revised their Fed call and is now expecting rate cuts in September and December, they pencil in the FOMC target range to fall to 3.0%-3.25% by next year.
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