📝There Is Less Than 5% Chance Of A Weak NFP Print Based On The ADP: Scotiabank

US ADP private payrolls were up by 233k in October. This morning’s estimate signals that Friday’s nonfarm payrolls could be firmer than some fear. Chart 6 shows the historical spread between changes in ADP payrolls and private nonfarm payrolls on first estimates pre-revisions. There is only about a one-in-ten chance that private nonfarm payrolls land around 100k or less on Friday given ADP at 233k. There is only a <5% chance that private nonfarm payrolls turn negative based on ADP. In other words, it is statistically improbable, but not impossible, that nonfarm payrolls turn up very weak. As a reminder, the biggest ADP—private nonfarm deviations were in the early stages of the pandemic.

Still, payrolls may be so distorted by hurricanes and strikes that the FOMC will shrug and walk on. - Scotiabank