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🎈Surprise: Non Farm Payrolls

Writer's picture: Rosbel DuránRosbel Durán
  • Consensus sees 150K jobs added in January. We have published a summary of expectations here.

  • We have seen the headline miss expectations in December and November, if January were to post below consensus headline growth, it would be the first three-consecutive downside surprises since 2017

  • Looking at a 5-year history of surprises, the standard deviation stands at 355K, so we made the next assumption to have an idea of big/small surprise:

Positive Surprise: 150K + 355K = 505K

Negative Surprise: 150K - 355K = -205K




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