📝Seen Upside Risks to April CPI: UBS Strategy

UBS Economist's Alan Detmeister sees a headline increase (46bp seasonally adjusted, BBG consensus at 40bp, swaps at roughly 40bp on a seasonally-adjusted basis) and 12-month headline inflation to hold roughly steady at 5.0%. The upside is driven by gasoline and used autos (adds 41bps vs last month) Food at home should decline. Core CPI prices also are looking to be strong with a 45bp increase (consensus at 33bp) and the 12-month inflation holding at 5.6%. He thinks risks are to the upside. Outside Used Auto core CPI looks to rise 32bps which would be the smallest increase in 18 months (travel). - UBS Strategy