Payroll data should soon begin to reflect weakening activity. The economic slowdown that we need is well underway, but payroll employment grew by 372k in lune despite other employment indicators--most notably the household survey of employment--pointing to a labor market deceleration. However, job growth may be more resilient than usual due to high labor demand. Expect job creation to fall to 150K a month this year and 60K in 2023, rising the unemployment rate to 4% by 2024. - Goldman Sachs
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