Considering the time lag for policy transmission, policy support impact on the economy will mostly come through in 1H24. We thus keep 4Q23 growth forecast intact at 5.5%q/q saar, with full-year 2023 growth at 5.2%yoy. Further out, as fiscal boost kicks in early next year, we have revised up growth forecasts for first two quarters of 2024 to 5.5% q/q saar and 4.7% respectively (from 4.5% previously). The forecast for 3Q24 remains unchanged at 4.5% q/q saar, though we revise down 4Q24 growth to 4.1% q/q saar (from 5.0% previously). Full-year 2024 growth forecast now stands at 4.9% (previously: 4.7%). The 2024 growth trajectory reflects the impact of bolstered fiscal policy support, leading to above-trend growth in 1H, though the economy will likely moderate to a slower trend-growth pace in 2H24 as impact of policy support fades away. Policy support aside, we see Chinas potential growth trends down to 4.0-4.5% next year, reflecting expansion of US-China conflicts to technology decoupling, accelerating global supply chain relocation amid rising geopolitical tensions, as well as significant housing market correction and weak private sector confidence on the domestic front. - J.P. Morgan
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