Oil: demand unchanged at 205EJ/107.5mbd, +12EJ/7.1mbd vs. 2019; supply reduced to 198EJ/104.1mbd (prev. 202EJ/106.0mbd),+7EJ/4.5mbd vs. 2019. Oil supply has fallen owing to a lower growth outlook in US shale and delays to deepwater and conventional oil and gas developments. Oil demand forecasts for 2025-30 remain unchanged from our prior update, reaching 107.5mbd in 2030, 7.1mbd higher than in 2019, with lower forecast in 2023-24 (In line with commodities team
Coal: demand broadly flat at 151EJ (prev. 152EJ), -11EJ vs. 2019; supply reduced to 140EJ (prev. 145EJ), -9EJ vs. 2019. After higher near term utilisation, we forecast a slightly faster decline during the second half of the decade. Gas: demand reduced to 165EJ (prev.167EJ), +25EJ vs. 2019; supply reduced to 163EJ (prev.165EJ):+20EJ vs. 2019. Overall gas demand growth is slowing down, and on the supply side, although installed power capacity grows y/y, the utilisation factor declines in response to prices and the gradual ramp up in renewables. - J.P. Morgan
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