**As seen in Risk In The Week report 02/09/24, subscribe at cablefxm.co.uk/reports
U.S. retail sales rose by 0.6% M/m in December, this was faster than the prior 0.3% and the consensus forecast of 0.4%. Nonstore retailers’ sales contributed 0.3pp to the headline, and motor vehicle sales brought +0.2pp, the former was the highest contribution since July. Over the last year, nonstore retailers’ sales have posted only two months of negative contributions.
Scotiabank analysts penciled in a decline of 0.2% on the month, they noted that auto sales fell by about 5.0% M/m in January. Scotiabank warned that it would take strong numbers in sales excluding autos and gas, however, they see this holding downside risks as the metric tracks a solid gain in December. Looking at a batch of estimates, the January retail sales headline call seems to be marginally skewed towards a faster rise than the median survey. Deutsche Bank sees the reading at 0.3%, CIBC and ABN Amro expect a 0.2% gain, and Wells Fargo forecasts the headline at 0.1%.
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