**As seen in Risk In The Week report 05/12/23, subcribe at cablefxm.co.uk/reports
March headline prices rose by 10.6% Y/y, this was below the median expectation of 11.0%. The CPIF measure eased to 8.0% Y/y, this missed the market consensus of 8.3% and marked the slowest level since July. On a monthly basis, CPIF rose by 0.6% from the prior 1.5%, food and drink prices eased to 1.2% from the prior 2.7%, this was the slowest monthly pace since December. Leisure prices dropped by 1.1 M/m, the most deflationary print since November. The March print leaves Sweden as the top inflation overshoot in the G10, our Macro Walk report showed the gap between the Riksbank’s target and actual inflation stands at 8.6 percentage points, only the U.K. comes close at 8.1 percentage points. Analysts at Nordea said their April inflation forecasts stand above the Riksbank’s expectations, however, they project prices falling in line with the central bank as soon as May. Nordea noted that April food prices are set to print unchanged, this is remarkable when compared to the 12- month average pace of +1.5% M/m. Nordea expects the Riksbank to raise rates in June by 25bps to 3.75%, analysts warned that there are risks for the central bank staying on hold if inflation proves to show progress.
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