RPT-🏦🇦🇺Cable FX Macro Weekly Note: RBA May Rate Decision

**As seen in Risk In The Week report 04/28/23, subscribe at cablefxm.co.uk/reports

The RBA held rates steady back in early April, the Cash Rate sits at 3.60%. Governor Lowe delivered a speech the following day, he said that the pause should not be perceived as rate hikes being over. The April meeting minutes showed that the central bank considered a 25 basis points hike, however, they said that the case for a pause was stronger. Adding to this, the RBA noted faster population growth and wages as factors to resume rate hikes. The minutes stressed that the RBA may need to hike rates in further meetings, while the accounts noted that a fresh batch of CPI and growth forecasts are set to be released in May. On a separate note, the recent RBA review reduced the frequency in which the central bank meets, now it is set to decide on rates 8 times per year with a press conference following each meeting. For May, analysts at ANZ expect the RBA to hold the Cash Rate steady, they cited inflation easing as they see prices falling to 6.7% by the second quarter, currently stand at 7.0% Y/y. ANZ expects a Cash Rate hike of 25bps by August, this will reach their peak rate forecast of 3.85%, they do not see the board cutting rates until the last quarter of 2024.