RPT--❗️🇳🇴Cable FX Macro Weekly Note: Norway May Consumer Prices

**As seen in Risk In The Week report 06/09/24, subscribe at cablefxm.co.uk/reports

Norway April CPI-ATE measure rose 4.4% Y/y and 0.9% M/m, both metrics above the consensus median, economists had seen inflation at 4.2%. Headline prices rose 3.6% Y/y, however, the metric was slower than the prior month. Food prices accelerated to the fastest since January at 6.8% Y/y, transport inflation rebounded to 1.8% Y/y, and housing CPI fell to the lowest since November at 2.0% Y/y. Economists' median projection pencils Norway CPI rising 3.5% Y/y in 2024 before slowing to 2.3% next year, most economists do not expect the Norges Bank to cut rates before the end of 2024. Having this said, any lack of progress in May could make rate-cut market bets seen as premature.

However, other factors like weaker GDP growth and global central banks easing have pushed desks to call a Norges Bank rate cut as soon as September. Analysts at ING noted that the Riksbank's start of its easing cycle has left the Norwegian krone in a relatively better position. As a reminder, the March Norges Bank projections showed policymakers expecting core inflation to rise 4.2% Y/y in May.