The driver behind a lower JPY are now changing, and the currency offers attractive asymmetry. We therefore see a variety of paths to a yen recovery — US economic weakness and/or upward pressure on rates in Japan —and limited scope for further sustained depreciation. Also, USD/JPY longs face the risk of official FX intervention. Recommend buying a 6m 115 USD/JPY digital put, at a price of about 9%, to position for a further step-down in US growth momentum over the coming months. See downside risks to 12m USD/JPY forecast of 123. - Goldman Sachs FX Strategy
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