🇨🇦RBC On Canadian Employment

*We look for next week’s labour market report to show strong job growth in March (+150k) as virus containment measures continued to ease. Industries that make up the hospitality sector are massively over-represented in remaining economic weakness – accounting for 80% of the shortfall in total hours worked versus pre-shock (February 2020) levels

*Rising covid case counts —particularly new variants —have raised alarms around whether a third round of restrictions will halt the economic recovery. Still, risk of another near-term economic downturn looks smaller given the economy continued to grow through the winter wave of virus spread and restrictions. And vaccine distribution is also accelerating, with over 3 million doses arriving in Canada this week alone, and an additional 30+ million booked over Q2.

*RBC March Labour Report Expectations:

Employment M/M +150K, prev. +259K

Unemployment Rate 7.9%, prev. 8.2%