A regression looking back to early May using Polymarket data gives us a hint to what assets are most likely to move on a Trump victory. A Harris win outcome should see these assets move in the opposite direction.
Looking at daily close data, the rates space and the dollar emerge as the highest betas to Trump's chances, the USD is measured by the Cable FX Macro Dollar Index. On the opposite side of the trade, the Hang Seng Index and the yuan stand as the most negative betas. Meaning, rising odds of Trump winning will stage pressure here.
A gauge of EM currencies indexed by J.P. Morgan is also sensitive to the election. EMFX are likely to post wide swings regardless of the election result, the Mexican peso 1w ATM vol stands above 45.0%.
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