📝Our Central Scenario Sees RBA Easing Starting In Sept. 2024: CBA

We don’t anticipate any further increases to the cash rate, but acknowledge the near term risk sits with another 25bp rate hike(the next Board decision is 6 February 2024). Our central scenario sees the RBA commence an easing cycle in September 2024 (we have 75bp of rate cuts in our profile in late 2024 and a further 75bp of easing in H1 25, which would take the cash rate to 2.85%. Attention for local market participants now shifts to the Q3 23 national accounts (to be published at 11.30am tomorrow). The national accounts will give us an update on production, income, savings, unit labour costs and productivity in the September quarter. We forecast an increase in real GDP of 0.5%/qtr (slightly firmer than our previously published forecast of 0.4%/qtr – see here for the team’s note on today’s Q3 23 partial data).

-CBA