This has been a question of intense debate. Survey participants almost uniformly see this as a horse race between the RBNZ and Federal Reserve. NZ-based participants believe more strongly the Federal Reserve will ease first, whereas offshore customers see the RBNZ moving first.- Westpac
The real driver behind AUD strength is the interest-rate differential. As of April 14, 2026, the 10-year AGB yield sits at approximately 4.93%, while the equivalent U.S. 10-year Treasury yields 4.27%—
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