📝No Game Changer Into The RBNZ Meeting: ANZ

There has been nothing to move the dial on the data front in recent weeks, so we are expecting a reiteration of the key messages from the February MPS.

This on-hold OCR decision is being taken as a given, but there are a couple of interesting things to look out for in the Record of Meeting:

1. Any discussion on near-term inflation risks (monthly price indexes, the NZD, oil prices).

2. Any take on whether they think the upward surprise in consumption in Q4 was notable (we don’t think it was).

3. And of course, any change to the language around the outlook for monetary policy, but we are expecting something extremely similar if not identical to the February line that “interest rates need to remain at a restrictive level for a sustained period of time”. - ANZ