🇺🇸Mexican Peso Tracks Trump 2024 Odds Higher: Cable FX Macro

• Trump chances of winning the U.S. 2024 Presidential Election rose to 60.0% on Wednesday, this is the highest since July, according to data provided by Polymarket. A strong stance against the Mexico auto industry and the potential introduction of tariffs have pressured the peso

• USD/MXN is closely tracking the rise in Trump's odds, the peso is now extending losses to 1.5% MTD vs the dollar. Vols are massively bid with the 1m tenor now above 21.0%, this dilutes any carry recovery prospects from a trading perspective

• While a strong U.S. economy had helped the peso early in the month, it seems like a new narrative is taking over as a Trump win would likely be MXN negative