📝Maintain Bearish Bias On Crude Oil, See $55-$75/bbl Range: Banorte IXE

Crude-oil prices have exhibited heightened volatility in recent months. Brent and WTI had previously priced in 20% geopolitical risk premia amid Middle East tensions, pushing prices to five-month highs. However, this premia was fully unwind following the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran. Post-OPEC+ announcement, Brent and WTI declined roughly 1.0%, although they stabilize starting this session at 68.7 $/bbl (+0.6%) and 67.1 $/bbl (+0.1%), respectively.

Despite peak seasonal demand during the summer months, the energy market balance continues to tilt toward surplus in the near term. Chinese consumption has softened, and US tariffs poses downside risks to global growth. Against this backdrop, we maintain a bearish bias on crude-oil prices and reiterate our estimate for Brent to trade within a 55–75 $/bbl range for the remainder of the year.

The next meeting of the eight OPEC+ members is scheduled for August 3rd, 2025, to determine September production targets. Meanwhile, the Ministerial Meeting will take place on November 30th, 2025. - Banorte IXE