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Writer's pictureRosbel Durán

✨ 🔺 Longer-Term Estimates Of Fed Policy Extend Higher: Cable FX Macro

  • Wednesday session saw the FOMC keep rates unchanged as the Fed skipped a rate hike but signal further increases

  • The U.S. Treasury space was bid into the announcement, however, gains were pared after the decision and Fed projections were released

  • The session saw the U.S. 2-year yield rise to the highest since 2006, the 10-year yield jumped to cycle highs of 4.4070% levels not seen since 2007

  • A prior day, the space saw the 5-year yield breaching 4.5%, highest since 2007

  • Longer-end rates moving higher is particularly interesting, market commentary is comparing these to the Fed's median of longer-run dot projections, the metric has been at around 2.50% for some time

  • Powell was questioned on the level of neutral rates (R*), on this he said: "the neutral interest rate may be higher, we don't know yet" and "plausible the neutral rate is higher than the long-run rate"


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