top of page
Search

🎈January Inflation Profile Skewed Towards Upside Surprise: Cable FX Macro

  • January inflation profile looks skewed towards an upside surprise. Over the last nine events, only one U.S. headline CPI metric has been a miss, this translates to an average surprise of 0.9pp

  • We have not seen a January headline CPI number in line with economists' survey median since 2015. Forecasting is difficult, and lower BLS survey response rates across categories do not make it easier. A recent Bloomberg article reported 2023 inflation completed survey response rate at 73%

  • The consensus expects headline CPI falling to 2.9% Y/y. A -/+ surprise one standard deviation move would see the figure at 2.8%/3.0%



 
 
 

Comments

© 2024

CableFXWHITEdropshadow.png
  • Twitter - White Circle

Investing and trading involve risk. This includes the possible loss of principal and fluctuations in value. There is no assurance that objectives will be met. Do not risk capital that you cannot afford to lose.  

bottom of page