ISM surveys have been softer in the past months, this confirms our view that we're likely to see a cyclical slowdown in H2. The Philly Fed 6-month forecast figure plunged to multi-year lows in April. Regional manufacturing surveys reinforce this direction, and we expect to see more signs of cracking this week in the ISM manufacturing figures. We suspect goods consumption will fade, as prices have increased markedly during the pent-up pandemic demand, and consumption will shift over to the service sector, supported by normalising demand after Covid-19 lockdowns. We expect this will lead to rising wages in the service sector, which will attract workers to a sector suffering from scarcity of labour. - Nordea Research
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