ING:
Our nowcast index has been trending upwards for quite some time now. In the week ending 8 May, the index reached 102.1, which was the highest reading since early March 2020, so around the start of the pandemic in Europe. It dropped slightly to 99.8 in the week after, but remains at levels last seen before the second wave.
Looking at the variables comprising the index, we see that Google searches for unemployment and benefits have fallen back to the pre-pandemic trend. That indicates that the labour market is improving and that confidence in maintaining employment is rising among people in the eurozone. Electricity use has increased significantly over the first few months of the year, while NO2 emissions remaining below pre-pandemic levels.
Mobility data shows that daily trips to retail and recreation sites has increased quickly in the past four weeks as restrictions eased, and the number of visits to workplaces has reached the highest level since October. The number of trips to essential retail like supermarkets has already surpassed pre-pandemic levels.
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