That Article 16 will be triggered is viewed as increasingly inevitable, but what happens then is far less clear. What ultimately matters is how far the EU decides to retaliate against any UK action. And that initially depends on exactly how much of the Northern Ireland protocol the UK government seeks to suspend.
A narrow move by the UK to rectify a specific issue – perhaps aimed at making life easier for supermarkets bringing products from the British mainland into NI – need not provoke a nuclear response from Brussels. That’s particularly true if London follows the correct procedure laid out in the original deal, and continues to carry out other checks on goods entering NI. The clause says that the EU could take retaliatory measures, but only that are ‘proportionate’ and ‘strictly necessary’, and linked directly to the Northern Ireland agreement itself.
Recent comments from Brexit minister Lord Frost suggest that might be wishful thinking. The government wants fundamental changes to the way the protocol works, and it seems more likely, therefore, that Article 16 is used to suspend large parts of the agreement. Trying to unilaterally tinker with the role of the European Courts of Justice – which can weigh in on disputes surrounding the protocol – would be viewed as particularly incendiary in Brussels.
The EU has various options at its disposal, some of which we’ve detailed in the infographic below. But to cut a long story short, many of the legal options offered by the different agreements signed with the UK are either very long-winded, potentially taking years, or could constrain how far Brussels can respond. A rapid imposition of tariffs, through these routes at least, may be difficult.
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