🔻Gold Seasonals Point to Lower Prices Ahead: Cable FX Macro

• Gold has experienced a remarkable rally, surging approximately $4,379.6 per ounce from an initial price of $2,609.2 per ounce at the beginning of the year. This significant increase in value can be attributed to a confluence of factors that have created a favorable environment for gold as a safe-haven asset.

• One of the primary drivers behind gold's ascent has been the ongoing trade uncertainty that has permeated global markets. Tensions between major economies, fluctuating trade policies, and geopolitical conflicts have led investors to seek refuge in gold, which is traditionally viewed as a stable store of value during times of economic instability. The unpredictability surrounding trade agreements and tariffs has heightened market volatility, prompting many to turn to gold as a hedge against potential losses in other asset classes.

• Moreover, the demand from global central banks has significantly bolstered gold's position in the market. Many central banks have been increasing their gold reserves as part of their monetary policy strategies. This trend is often driven by a desire to diversify away from traditional fiat currencies and to enhance financial stability. As central banks accumulate gold, they not only support the metal's price but also signal confidence in its long-term value, which in turn attracts more investors to the market.

• Examining the 10-year history of gold trading reveals a consistent trend of weakness in the upcoming month, and considering the current trading levels, it is probable that we will observe sideways movement. Gold has seen sustained monthly gains since August, and September recorded the best month in our 10-year historic data. The last time the metal recorded monthly gains over this period of time, spot prices dropped 3.6% in November.