📝 Expect A Follow Up RBA Rate Hike In February: NAB

The RBA delivered on expectations for a rate rise at its November meeting – taking the cash rate to 4.35%. Reflecting recent data, the staff’s inflation outlook has been revised up and we now see one further rise as likely to balance the risks, pencilling in a 4.6% rate peak in February, though December is live.

Looking further ahead, given the resilience of the economy and labour market thus far we now see rate cuts as unlikely to begin until November (previously August) with gradual cuts through 2025 and early 2026 to 3.1%, around the long-run neutral level. -NAB