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💶🔻Euro Could Face Further Downside On Periphery Spreads: Cable FX Macro

  • Italian BTPs trade off session lows, the 10-year yields rose 8.5bps on the day to 4.866%, this has breached above last year highs to reach levels not seen since 2013

  • The move has taken the BTP-Bund 10-year yield spread above 200bps, a level not seen since March

  • Thursday session received consumer prices from Spain and Germany, producer prices from Italy. Spanish CPI accelerated faster than the prior month at 3.2% Y/y

  • The selloff in the periphery could pressure the euro further. The chart below shows the Bund-BTP spread vs the EUR/USD rate. The last time the spread held above 200bps for more than a month, the euro traded closer to 1.02

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