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⚠️💱 EUR/USD Volatility Premium Rises On Realized Decline: Cable FX Macro

Writer: Rosbel DuránRosbel Durán

**As seen in Macro Walk report 10/20/23, subscribe at cablefxm.co.uk/repoorts

  • We saw EUR/USD front-end vol rise this week by about 50bps to 7.922%, the 1w tenor now overlays the ECB October meeting. Realized volatility dipped this week as the spot rate remained below 1.06. 1w historic seems to be rebounding after nearing YTD lows, last at 4.374%

  • The premium in USD/JPY vols continue to favour implieds across tenors as the spot rate moves closer to 150.0, however, the spread is still below YTD highs. Risk reversals remain skewed towards yen topside demand, the 1m tenor ticks at 1.15 vols in favour of USD/JPY puts

  • We have seen a measure of G10 historic volatility rise since mid-September, after reaching the lowest level since November 2021. G10 implieds have stayed stubbornly low, the J.P. Morgan FX Volatility Index ticks closer to the lows of the year, last at 8.26%


 
 

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