Looking at the performance of the dollar after the FOMC decided on rates, our sample covers monetary policy decisions from March 2022 (start of Fed's tightening cycle) to July 2023
To calculate dollar returns, we looked into the Cable FX Macro Dollar Index historic performance <.RDDXY> (-20/+20 days of the FOMC decision)
The dollar tends to rise 20-sessions post the FOMC with an 83% hit ratio, the average performance is +1.02%, the highest performance is +4.06%, standard deviation 2.80%
Since March 2022, the Fed hiked rates every meeting except May 2023 and September 2023. The dollar rose 3.74% 20-days after the May "skip" decision
I'd rather look into 20-days, 15-days of price action after the Fed decision, as the dollar records mixed performance on the day of the release. Since March 2022, the USD has risen 50% of time on Fed days. Also, the dollar index posts a flat performance 30 minutes after the monetary policy decision
Komentáre