The ECB meeting on Thursday will be an appetizer for the June meeting. We expect the growth outlook to be 'broadly balanced' paving the way for the PEPP purchase pace going back to February levels around EUR60bn after the June meeting.
We think Lagarde will repeat the 'delayed and not derailed' recovery narrative. For the reader with a larger ECB appetite
Euro Area April flash PMIs published on Friday should indicate that the pace of economic recovery has moderated. After the strong readings in Q1, manufacturing PMI may fall back, in line with Chinese PMI whereas service PMIs should still move upwards.
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