📝 Consider Tail Risk for BoE Doves Rate Cut Vote In May: ING

The final wild card comes from the vote split. Last time we saw seven members vote for a 25bp hike and two for no change. There’s certainly a tail risk, based on recent comments, that one or both of the doves (Tenreyro and Dhingra) vote for a rate cut at this meeting. That could set up a rare, but not unprecedented, three-way split. Still, it’s clear that the “core” five or six committee members tend to move together, and that means that whatever the decision, the vote is unlikely to be exceptionally close.

- ING