Much is made out of China’s slowing economic momentum and the likelihood of GDP growth scaling down to 4-5% or lower. But even at such pace, China’s share of global GDP continues to rise. Nearly 24% of global growth this year will come from China, a tad lower than that of the US. With growth and inflation slowing sharply in the US, China is on course to be, by far, the largest contributor to global growth in 2024.
Global real GDP growth has gone from 3.4% in 2022 to a forecasted 2.8% this year, before settling at 3% in 2024, as per the IMF. These numbers may turn out to be weaker, given the slowdown taking place in China and EU. With both China and EU slowing, the demand side won't be spoiling the global inflation picutre.
- DBS
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