🇨🇳China Growth Expected to Hold Above 5.0% Y/y Into 2024: Cable FX Macro

• Tuesday ASIAPAC session received Q1 data from China, growth expanded at 4.5% Y/y, this was better than the consensus median of 4.0% and faster than the prior 2.9%. On the quarter, the economy grew by 2.2%, economists' forecasts ranged from 1.0% to 2.8%

• Industrial production posted an increase of 3.9% Y/y, below consensus. Retail sales jumped by 10.6% Y/y vs the median survey of 7.5%

• Our China Economic Monitor showed activity picking up over the last three months as the reopening translated into the data. Both manufacturing and services PMI measures rebounded to print above 50 from the December readings of 47 and 41.6, respectively, the latest services figure is at the highest since 2011

• While this pace of growth might not seem sustainable, the Bloomberg composite forecast shows economists projecting annualized growth above 5.0% into 2024. The median forecast sees China GDP expanding at 1.1% Q/q in Q1 and Q2 2024