🇺🇸❗️Cable FX Macro Weekly Note: U.S. Non Farm Payrolls

**As seen in Risk In The Week report 04/28/23, subscribe at cablefxm.co.uk/reports

The March Non Farm Payrolls headline saw an addition of 236K jobs, this was lower than the prior 326K (upward revised) but slightly higher than the consensus median of 230K. The manufacturing sector added 1K jobs, beating estimates of -4K. The March jobless rate came in at 3.5%, this surprised the median survey of 3.6%. Average hourly earnings increased by 0.3% M/m, in line with estimates. The headline saw a slowdown from previous months, the figure came at the lowest level since December 2020, however, the pace does not reflect a deterioration of the jobs market. Economists’ expectations have continuously underestimated the headline figure for most of last year, Non Farm Payrolls have topped consensus for 11 out of the last 12 months. However, the March release was the smallest upside surprise seen in a year. We remind you that we will be receiving a batch of data before the April Non Farm Payrolls, we will see JOLTs opening on Tuesday, ADP jobs and ISM on Wednesday, Challenger Job Cuts on Thursday. In line with our previous view of consensus undershooting the headline, analysts at Scotiabank penciled the April release above the median at 220K, they expect the unemployment rate to decline to 3.4%. Scotiabank noted that while job postings contract, the number of vacancies remain above the long-term average, they added that these openings take time to fill and that the process of job additions can persist for a while. On average hourly earnings, Scotia sees the rate unchanged at 0.3% M/ m. Economists at Goldman Sachs see U.S. unemployment rate at 3.5% by en of 2Q, this is below the median forecast of 3.7%. For the second quarter, Barclays stands in line with the consensus, they see the jobless rate rising to 4.4% by end of this year.