🇺🇸Cable FX Macro Weekly Note: U.S. March Retail Sales

**As seen in Risk In The Week report 04/07/23, subscribe at cablefxm.co.uk/reports

The January rise in retail sales was not sustained as the following month contracted by 0.4% M/m, the figure came in line with the median survey. The ex-auto metric fell by 0.1%, the print excluding autos and gas contracted by 0.2% on the month. The control group surprised as the consensus had seen a decline of 0.3% while it came in at +0.5% M/m. Department stores recorded a 4.0% contraction vs the prior rise of 18.1%, online sales extended in February after rising 1.6% on the month, this was the largest upside print in the reporting sectors. Economists at SEB note that the February correction is part of a better than expected weather in January. Ahead, SEB notes mixed signals from lowering inflation but a softer labour market and a gradual decline in excess savings. March retail sales forecasts are tilted towards the downside, the range goes from -1.2% to 0.2%. The desks at ING and Scotiabank stand in line with consensus at -0.4%, CIBC sees a softer print at -0.6%, BNP Paribas expects a 0.7% decline.