*As seen in Risk In The Week report 03/31/23, subscribe at cablefxm.co.uk/reports
The February ISM manufacturing PMI posted a slight rebound to 47.7 from the prior 47.4, this however missed the median expectation of 48.0. Employment and production declined from January, new orders rebounded. The prices paid index jumped to tick above 50.0 from the prior 44.5. We have seen a divergence in the manufacturing and services surveys, the former slows down, and the latter has remained relatively more resilient. As a reference the manufacturing index printed at 52.9 six months ago, the services index was at 56.1, services has seen little or no slowdown. Economists at Wells Fargo Securities think the ISM manufacturing index will contract for a fifth consecutive month, as they pencil the figure at 47.3. For services, they note that the February index showed the highest pace of hiring since 2021 as employment jumped to 54.0, they expect the sector to remain above 50.0 in March. Analysts at SEB stand in line with the consensus, as they expect the manufacturing index to remain below 50.0 on the back of a decline in new orders. SEB notes a slowdown in other regional surveys and warns that tightening conditions could pose downside risks to the consensus expectations.
Comments