top of page

🇺🇸❗️Cable FX Macro Weekly Note: U.S. March CPI

Writer's picture: Rosbel DuránRosbel Durán

**As seen in Risk In The Week report 04/07/23, subscribe at cablefxm.co.uk/reports

February consumer prices eased to 6.0% Y/y from the prior 6.4%, the release was in line with the market consensus forecast. So far, economists’ expectations have turned out accurate in December and February, January surprised to the upside by 0.2pp. The core figure came in at 5.5% Y/y, in line with the median survey and softer than the prior month. This can be perceived as a sign of progress, however, measures of inflation remain well above long-term averages. The core figure is in focus here as it accelerated to 0.5% M/ m, while the “super core” isn’t showing signs of a slowdown. The team at Bloomberg noted that shelter costs made up three-quarters of the increase and were the biggest factor in the February CPI gains. The report came in during the same week of the SVB failure, the events following shaped Fed board and market participant expectations of interest rates. Economists expect to see another month of slowdown in headline inflation, however, the Bloomberg median survey sees the core accelerating to 5.6% Y/y. If forecasts materialize, this would be the first time headline CPI prints below the core since 2020. Analysts at CIBC say that OPEC+ production cut will likely affect April CPI, they also note that housing is set to peak soon and a deterioration of the U.S. labour market could transpire from previous monetary tightening. CIBC pencils U.S. headline inflation to decline to 3% Y/y by end of 2023. The desk at Wells Fargo sees headline CPI falling to 2.8% Y/y by December and to 2.3%Y/y by this time next year.




0 comments

Opmerkingen


© 2024

CableFXWHITEdropshadow.png
  • Twitter - White Circle

Investing and trading involve risk. This includes the possible loss of principal and fluctuations in value. There is no assurance that objectives will be met. Do not risk capital that you cannot afford to lose.  

bottom of page