🇺🇸❗️Cable FX Macro Weekly Note: U.S. July Non Farm Payrolls

**As seen in Risk In The Week report 07/28/23, subscribe at cablefxm.co.uk/reports

June headline Non Farm Payrolls missed the median survey forecast for the first time in more than a year, the figure came in at 209K vs the estimate of 230K and the prior 339K. The prior month was downwardly revised to 306K, and the June two-month payroll net revision took off 110K jobs. The unemployment rate came in line with expectations at 3.6%, and the participation rate printed at 62.6%. While the headline could have been digested as a miss and potentially softness from the labour market, average hourly earnings rose faster at 4.4% Y/y, and the print was above expectations of 4.2%. Construction and manufacturing posted gains of 23K and 7K in June, the latter rebounded from the prior -3K. Leisure and hospitality jobs extended gains at 21K, and retail trade shredded 11K jobs. The figure leaves Non Farm Payrolls 3-month average at 244K, slightly lower from the prior 247K. With average readings above 200K, the U.S. labour market is still to see signs of cooling, the metric might come to solidify expectations for a resilient tightening bias from the Fed. The forecast range for July headline employment goes from 150K to 270K, Societe Generale pencils a 190K jobs gain, BMO sits with consensus, Barclays forecasts a 250K print.