🇺🇸❗️Cable FX Macro Weekly Note: U.S. January Non Farm Payrolls

**As seen in Risk In The Week report 01/27/23, cablefxm.co.uk/reports

December non farm payrolls slowed to 223K from a prior downward revision of 256K, the headline came up higher than the survey median of 205K. Manufacturing jobs increased by 8K, private payrolls rose by 220K. Average hourly earnings increased by 0.3% M/m vs the consensus of 0.4%, the unemployment rate came in at 3.5% vs the survey median of 3.7%. Household employment rebounded to add 717K jobs, leisure and hospitality added 67K jobs, losses were less dispersed than in November. Broadly speaking, a higher than expected headline, lower than expected unemployment rate and an easing in AHE brought a mixed to strong employment report in December. Analysts at Scotiabank see the headline coming in at 200K, the whisper number is said to be in line with the survey median. On the latter, the bank notes that there is a persistent forecast bias among economists, they noted that the consensus underestimated the actual figure during 11 of 12 months in 2022. They flag that it could be the case that economists are too negative, as it was the case for Q3 and Q4 GDP figures. On layoffs, Scotiabank looked into Challenger, Gray And Christmas measures to note that firings have ticked up higher but have not reached an alarming level when compared to the most recent crisis.