🇸🇪❗️ Cable FX Macro Weekly Note: Sweden December Consumer Prices

**As seen in Risk In The Week report 01/12/24, subscribe at cablefxm.co.uk/reports

Headline consumer prices eased further in November, the print showed inflation at 5.8% Y/y from the prior 6.5%, and the consensus median had seen a 6.0%. The CPIF metric slowed to 3.6% Y/y from the prior 4.2%, this missed expectations of 3.9%, and it is the slowest print since November 2021. On the month, CPIF excluding energy posted the largest drop since January 2021 at 0.5%. The November consumer prices report helped raise expectations of Riksbank 2024 rate cuts, however, most desks don’t see this happening until the second half of the year.

Analysts at Nordea noted that while December prices are set to tick faster, the data will still be below the Riksbank’s price forecast, the central bank is expecting CPIF at 2.1%, and the metric excluding energy is penciled at 5.6%. While the headline is expected to ease from the prior month, Nordea’s projection still sees prices above target, however, they expect inflation to stabilize at around 2% from mid-2024. Nordea warned that the rise in transport prices given conflicts in the Middle East stands as an upside risk to their forecast. Yet, analysts noted that a stronger krone will likely keep downside price pressures in place.