🇺🇸❗️Cable FX Macro Weekly Note: September Non Farm Payrolls

**As seen in Risk In The Week report 09/29/23, subscribe at cablefxm.co.uk/reports

We will get Non Farm Payrolls on Friday after U.S. policymakers avoided a government shutdown. Last month, the BLS reported an addition of 187K jobs, this came above the consensus forecast of 170K. The jobless rate surprised economists’ expectations at 3.8% vs 3.5%. Average hourly earnings rose by 4.7% Y/y, in line with the survey median, while the monthly figure slowed to 0.2% vs the estimate of 0.3%. Downward revisions to the prior two months took off 110K jobs, this was almost half of the prior gains. The mix of a healthy pace in the addition of workers, a slowdown in wages, and labor demand easing from various sectors induced the market to interpret the report as a ‘benign’ print. The desk at Commerzbank noted alternative indicators of employment showing weakness, they said the demand for temporary workers has been falling for seven months now, and added that this is typical heading into a recession. Commerzbank said they do not expect the unemployment rate to rise drastically until next year, they stand in line with the consensus at 3.7% and expect the headline at 160K. September Non Farm Payrolls forecast range goes from 90K to 250K, Société Générale sees the headline at 190K, Goldman Sachs pencils a 200K print, Barclays expects 225K jobs.