🏦🇦🇺Cable FX Macro Weekly Note: RBA April Cash Rate Decision

**As seen in Risk In The Week report 03/31/23, subscribe at cablefxm.co.uk/reports

The Australian central bank delivered a 25bps Cash Rate hike back in early March, this lifted the cost of money to 3.6%. After having delivered the 10th consecutive rate hike, the RBA said that they expect further monetary policy tightening to be needed, however, Governor Lowe claimed levels were close to a point where the board will feel comfortable stopping. More recently, we received the meeting minutes where the board returned to question if further rate lifts were necessary. Moreover, the monthly inflation indicator showed signs of easing as the figure printed at 6.8% Y/y vs the prior 7.4%. Analysts at CBA scratched their expectations for an April rate hike and now see the RBA pausing, they project a chance of a no move at 55% and the probability of a 25bps rate hike at 45%. The desk at RBC joins the consensus for an April pause, however, they have moved their rate hike call to May as the central bank is likely to hold its tightening bias.