**As seen in Risk In The Week report 02/02/24, subscribe at cablefxm.co.uk/reports
New Zealand employment fell 0.2% in Q3 vs the prior +1.0% and the consensus of +0.4%. The rise in the jobless rate was no surprise but the 3.9% is the highest in two years. Average hourly earnings rose 2.0% in the quarter while the participation rate ticked at 72.0%. The uptick in the jobless rate and the slowdown in wages point to a shift in monetary policy at the RBNZ, we will hear from the central bank by the end of the month.
ANZ economists said they will expect further wage pressure to ease over Q4 along with spare capacity increasing, they pencil N.Z. unemployment rate rising to 4.3% from 3.9% and employment rising by 0.2% Q/q from the prior -0.2%. However, ANZ flagged that the report is not likely to be a game changer at the RBNZ, they added that the central bank will wait for a sustained period of cooling in the labour market before easing policy. ANZ sees the first rate cut coming by August if conditions continue to ease during 1H 2024.
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